Originally Posted by AC (Post 613255)

from another doctor who studies viruses:

WHO IS DYING? Let's take a close look at who is dying of COVID-19, and by proxy, your chance of dying. WARNING, some tough talk here. Virus Post # 21 by Idiot Immunologist-Surgeon.

It is imperative to know who has died and who is at risk of dying if we are going to be honest about the lethality of COVID-19. Only after we understand these FACTS can we have an intelligent discussion about when, where, and what we re-open. I've needed to write this post for 2 weeks, but I know the response will be brutal, claiming I don't love old people and "all lives matter". Both of my parents are 84 and I love them dearly, so let's look at facts and leave the emotion aside for once.

My sources are the CDC and NIH (all new data) an a 1-hour conversation yesterday with a dear friend--a surgeon who is performing all the tracheostomies for ventilator patients in the ICU at Mt Sinai Hospital in NYC--the true epicenter hospital. No Fox news or CNN sources here.

The overwhelming majority of people dying of CV19 are UNHEALTHY people to begin with. Although there are a few tragic deaths of young nurses and doctors, these are the exceptions. Let's look at the 99% and not discuss the outliers. I'll break down deaths by three categories: underlying disease, nursing homes, and socioeconomic status.

UNDERLYING DISEASE. By now you know that "underlying disease" is the BIG risk factor. The biggest and most important are: poorly controlled diabetes, morbid obesity, heart disease, hypertension, and kidney disease. It should not be a surprise that these conditions are very often found in the same individual. When you add smoking, poor nutritional (and vitamin) status, these folks are at high risk from dying from ANY insult. Heck, they survive car crashes at 50% the rate of healthy people. My surgeon friend states "the vast majority of patients look alike, they have not taken care of themselves for over a decade and they don't have the reserves to fight any infection. They are the most unhealthy of our city."

Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 99.5 percent, had at least one of the underlying illness listed above. Almost 90% have 3 or more.

NURSING HOMES: Nursing home deaths account for more than 50 percent of all CV19 deaths in six states: Colorado, Delaware, Massachusetts, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Utah. They represent over 20% of deaths from the virus nationwide and over 21% in NYC. 3600 nursing home residents in NYC metro area are among dead with 55 from one nursing home in Brooklyn. It's worse in Europe. The WHO released numbers yesterday estimating 50% of all CV19 deaths in Europe are from nursing homes.

I want to emphasize that these facilities serve a huge variety of patients, but residents in nursing homes have at least one chronic condition for which they need some ongoing medical care-that's the requirement to get in. Some are an otherwise healthy person who is recovering from a stroke. But the average nursing home resident has 5.8 chronic heath conditions (see section above). Poor nutrition is very common and plays a huge role in the ability to fight any infection. 40.5% nursing home residents in the US are over 85, with 6.8% over 95.

Alzheimer's Disease or other forms of dementia is present in 48.6% of all US nursing home residents. Alzheimer's accounted as the primary cause of death in 121,404 Americans in 2018, the 6th highest cause of death; a rate of 37.3 per 100,000 people (much higher than CV19). These patients almost universally have DNR (Do Not Resuscitate) orders meaning that they and their family do not want any heroic measures taken to prolong their life. In fact, DNR orders are estimated to be present in over 90% of nursing home residents in the US. Thus, when they get sick with CV-19, little is done and they often die within 24 hours. We love these vulnerable folks, but we recognize many have reached their end of life. This is very hard to discuss and write about, but we need to understand.

SOCIOECONOMIC. My friend states that the majority of patients they see in NYC not from nursing homes are from the low socioeconomic faction of the NYC boroughs. Often there are many people living together in tight quarters and they have spread the virus among their household. Overwhelmingly they are poor, and typically minority (widely known now), morbidly obese, diabetic, hypertensive and with some underlying kidney dysfunction (see above).

BOTTOM LINE: The people dying of COVID-19 are the same un-healthy people who die of any virus, infection, or car crash. It turns out the mortality rate for this virus is really not much different than the seasonal flu. Yup, I said it because it appears to be true. The sick and the elderly don't do well with infections. Read this paragraph again please.

If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are amazingly small, REGARDLESS OF AGE. For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000 (CDC). Adults under 55 (probably 65) and children in normal health have essentially zero risk of any serious illness from COVID-19. These are the facts even when we include NYC. And no BS comments about flattening the curve--that has nothing to do with this conversation whatsoever--we are talking about death and who dies.

Moving forward we must isolate the VULNERABLE in our towns, and let the HEALTHY get out and get on with it. People in nursing homes do not go to the beach, or work out in the park. They don't go to the gym. Let's build our herd immunity. Let's stop destroying our country because we have the wrong policy of protecting everybody when we should only protect the vulnerable. The evidence is in--healthy people should not be locked up.

Originally Posted by Mark Yacavone (Post 613258)

I have no idea if this is true or not..(no source given) It does make sense to me though
I'm sure of one thing . One , of 3-4 peeps here will call BS, and come up with a study where teenagers are visiting playgrounds and parks in mass numbers, and (x) % are dying in huge numbers, and we must keep the economy shut down , indefinitely.
Just wanted to prep you for that.

Originally Posted by Don Kennedy (Post 613235)

curious can You post some information about this C19 being more contagious than the flu that happens every year

Originally Posted by Neal Derochie (Post 613264)

Ron thanks for your sympathy , you are correct, it does not mean you forgo treatments for illneses most people in nursing homes want continue to live just like you or I ,
My wife just got a call today to self quarantine because a work mate tested positive, she works at Interbake foods ( cookies) in N Sioux city SD. This whole metro area is about to become a hot spot ,not a fun position to be in, drag racing is important to me but living is a little higher up the list.
Neal

Originally Posted by Stewart Way (Post 613270)

If you look up the R-naught value of the common flu it is about 1.3 and the R-naught of Corvid-19 was at the lowest number I could find above 2. At 1.3 the common flu would infect around 14 people after 10 cycles of contact. Covid-19 at 2 with the same cycles of contact is 1024. Then throw in the fact that there is no "herd Immunity" for Covid-19 and you have a way more contagious flu.