Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone Nationals

[Jack Matyas]

Originally Posted by Chris1529

Why does the Safety Safari employee on the 4 wheeler in post 72 have a snow plow on the 4 wheeler? Or is that a squeegee attachment?

They also look pretty silly with the helmets. I think that most people who are using a wheeler for work and slow operation surely don't need a helmet on. Even if they are on the safety safari.

It looks like a sqeegee because it is one ! ! !

Its company rules that all employees must wear a helmet .No ifs , ands or buts .Everyone with no exceptions .

[david ring]

Originally Posted by Superfan1

From someone who studied meteorology in college, any forecast for more than 3 days into the future has a diminished accuracy probability, and that probability diminishes even more as the forecast range increases. At this point, a forecast for next weekend shouldn't be taken literally.

Bill,

I understand that, but decision makers have to make decisions based upon the information they have now. Suppose you have this information.

1. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-0 percent chance of rain;
2. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-100 percent chance of rain;

If you have case 1, you postpone until next weekend; if you have case 2, you race this weekend and take your chances. Sure, the weather next weekend is likely to be different from the forecast, but you can't wait until next weekend to make the decision about this weekend. Given the forecast that next weekend's weather was not likely to be great, I think NHRA made the right call to try to get the race in. Lee Zane is there with my comp car ready to race.

[Superfan1]

Originally Posted by david ring

Bill,

I understand that, but decision makers have to make decisions based upon the information they have now. Suppose you have this information.

1. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-0 percent chance of rain;
2. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-100 percent chance of rain;

If you have case 1, you postpone until next weekend; if you have case 2, you race this weekend and take your chances. Sure, the weather next weekend is likely to be different from the forecast, but you can't wait until next weekend to make the decision about this weekend. Given the forecast that next weekend's weather was not likely to be great, I think NHRA made the right call to try to get the race in. Lee Zane is there with my comp car ready to race.

David, I agree with everything that you said; my point was that anyone planning to attend the Dutch, at this point, shouldn't take next weekend's forecast literally.

[Michael Beard]

Originally Posted by david ring

I understand that, but decision makers have to make decisions based upon the information they have now. Suppose you have this information.

1. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-0 percent chance of rain;
2. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-100 percent chance of rain;

False premise. There is no such thing as a forecast for next week, particularly one that would ever say 0% or 100%. They have a hard time denoting a 0% or 100% chance within hours, let alone 10 days away. Again, it is scientifically impossible to generate a 10-day forecast with any accuracy better than "pin the tail on the donkey". It is a guess, period. I call it weather entertainment. They publish it just to have something to talk about. I've tracked it for numerous events for several years, and they have never bared any resemblance to actual conditions.

NHRA's procedure historically is to make every possible effort to complete an event on the original scheduled weekend due to scheduling, staffing, logistics, advertising, commitments of the racers, fans, sponsors, etc. It's rare to lose 3-4 complete days straight, so they choose to utilize whatever windows that present themselves. It's a lose-lose situation for most involved, but it is not possible for them to operate as nimble as a local bracket track. While they are forced to plow ahead and make the best of situations, they're generally pretty consistent about it.

We postponed our March race by a week this year, not because we were able to tell what the following weekend was going to offer, but because the original date offered no chance whatsoever. When the postponed date rolls around, you have to once again simply deal with the hand you are dealt, and adjust accordingly (which we had to do).



Visual demonstration of chaos theory:
My professor had a similar apparatus, with two sets of double bars. When dropped, they would start falling in the same direction at the same pace, but the error in the initial constraints multiply exponentially over time, quickly resulting in wildly different patterns. He explained things much better than this guy, but you get the idea.

[Jack Matyas]

So at 3 o'clock they bagged it for the day and said we'll start again tomorrow morning at 8:30 sharp .

And now its back to soap operas and maybe some cards .Speaking of which I dug out my Winston 20th anniversary deck - but i'm not sure exactly what year it was when I got them .Anybody got a clue??? And you must have proper snacks while playing .....

Oh yeah , btw its still raining .............

[Ron Ortiz]

Percent of chance of rain is a misleading statement.

If it rains one drop, then no matter what the percent chance is or was, it has met the percent chance.

50% chance does not mean that it will rain 50% of the day. Only that there is a chance it will rain, so if it rains one drop, then the percent chance has been met.

You racers chose to chance it out by going. Hope all goes well.

Several years ago we got hit with a hurricane on FL. west coast. In my little town of Englewood the storm went right through us but there was a pocket of clear area that stayed over us as the storm went through, no rain, the storm just cycled around us.

After that experience, I look at weather predictions a lot different. And that is a 50 % guess, which is not bad odds.

Ron Ortiz
U/SA chances of winning in the rain with my car, 100%

[Skydog]

Originally Posted by Jack Matyas

So at 3 o'clock they bagged it for the day and said we'll start again tomorrow morning at 8:30 sharp .

And now its back to soap operas and maybe some cards .Speaking of which I dug out my Winston 20th anniversary deck - but i'm not sure exactly what year it was when I got them .Anybody got a clue??? And you must have proper snacks while playing .....

Oh yeah , btw its still raining .............

Winston came on board, I believe in 1971. So they may be from '91.

[MikeMoller]

Nothing like some twizzlers on a rainy day at the track-love'em! Hope you guys get the race in.
BTW - From 1975 to 2001, Winston was the sponsor of the NHRA drag racing series

[david ring]

First of all, the reason for choosing 0 and 100 percent were to use the extremes. Second of all, the point of my example was to indicate that any decision today should use all information, including information about the future. Third, I know a little bit of math, maybe even more than a little bit and I understand about non-linearities and for example the stability of a system (for example a system could be locally stable and not globally stable-it is much easier to prove locally stability because you can use a linear approximation via the first few terms of a Taylor expansion). And while national events are rarely postponed in advance, points races have been due to forecasts.

[Brett Rose]

Anyone from the track or nearby awake yet? I'm about 2 hours and 45 minutes south, ready to make the trip up.


Watching the radar and looking bleak, especially with some strong wind blowing would make for a crappy drive. I'm keeping an eye on things here, and if it looks like a clear window for late morning, I'll make it up.


Thanks for the updates. Us fans and media folks appreciate it!