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-   -   Topeka 10 day weather??? (https://classracer.com/classforum/showthread.php?t=66229)

Tom Moock 05-19-2017 10:11 AM

Re: Topeka 10 day weather???
 
Racing in Topeka this morning per my son@ the track, challenger ran 1.24 under,weather man said 100% rain today.

Dyno 05-19-2017 05:17 PM

Re: Topeka 10 day weather???
 
is that the 392 combination?

Michael Beard 05-19-2017 06:57 PM

Re: Topeka 10 day weather???
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Superfan1 (Post 534665)
Alan, as someone who studied meteorology in college, I respectfully disagree. At best, a 10 day forecast is an educated guess. The weather systems that will be in play 10 days from now, in most cases, haven't even formed yet. The computer models that meteorologists use for guidance will indicate the formation of said systems; but at a very low level of confidence.

THANK YOU! Dead-on. I've been preaching this for years, but it falls on deaf ears. People put more faith in the Weather Entertainment people.

-MB

Ed Wright 05-19-2017 08:51 PM

Re: Topeka 10 day weather???
 
Doesn't appear they missed it too far. Glad I didn't go.

Michael Beard 05-20-2017 09:05 AM

Re: Topeka 10 day weather???
 
The LIVE from Norwalk thread is a great example. Friday's forecast said clear all day. It rained. Saturday's forecast a couple of days ago said chance of rain all day, today it says clear all day. I think people just put stock in what they say because every once in awhile they accidentally guess right. I think they also forget how much the "long range forecast" often differs from the same weather service's short range forecast just days later.

Michael Beard 05-20-2017 06:40 PM

Re: Topeka 10 day weather???
 
Hourly forecast for Norwalk today, as of this morning...

https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...52&oe=59AF2819


Guess they didn't look at the radar...

https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...a3&oe=59B1EA0A

"15%" It rained. "So you're telling me there's a chance!" :p


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