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-   -   Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone Nationals (https://classracer.com/classforum/showthread.php?t=59681)

Jack Matyas 10-01-2015 02:11 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris1529 (Post 483902)
Why does the Safety Safari employee on the 4 wheeler in post 72 have a snow plow on the 4 wheeler? Or is that a squeegee attachment?

They also look pretty silly with the helmets. I think that most people who are using a wheeler for work and slow operation surely don't need a helmet on. Even if they are on the safety safari.

It looks like a sqeegee because it is one ! ! !

Its company rules that all employees must wear a helmet .No ifs , ands or buts .Everyone with no exceptions .

david ring 10-01-2015 02:22 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Superfan1 (Post 483822)
From someone who studied meteorology in college, any forecast for more than 3 days into the future has a diminished accuracy probability, and that probability diminishes even more as the forecast range increases. At this point, a forecast for next weekend shouldn't be taken literally.

Bill,

I understand that, but decision makers have to make decisions based upon the information they have now. Suppose you have this information.

1. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-0 percent chance of rain;
2. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-100 percent chance of rain;

If you have case 1, you postpone until next weekend; if you have case 2, you race this weekend and take your chances. Sure, the weather next weekend is likely to be different from the forecast, but you can't wait until next weekend to make the decision about this weekend. Given the forecast that next weekend's weather was not likely to be great, I think NHRA made the right call to try to get the race in. Lee Zane is there with my comp car ready to race.

Superfan1 10-01-2015 03:09 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by david ring (Post 483907)
Bill,

I understand that, but decision makers have to make decisions based upon the information they have now. Suppose you have this information.

1. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-0 percent chance of rain;
2. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-100 percent chance of rain;

If you have case 1, you postpone until next weekend; if you have case 2, you race this weekend and take your chances. Sure, the weather next weekend is likely to be different from the forecast, but you can't wait until next weekend to make the decision about this weekend. Given the forecast that next weekend's weather was not likely to be great, I think NHRA made the right call to try to get the race in. Lee Zane is there with my comp car ready to race.

David, I agree with everything that you said; my point was that anyone planning to attend the Dutch, at this point, shouldn't take next weekend's forecast literally.

Michael Beard 10-01-2015 03:32 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by david ring (Post 483907)
I understand that, but decision makers have to make decisions based upon the information they have now. Suppose you have this information.

1. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-0 percent chance of rain;
2. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-100 percent chance of rain;

False premise. There is no such thing as a forecast for next week, particularly one that would ever say 0% or 100%. They have a hard time denoting a 0% or 100% chance within hours, let alone 10 days away. Again, it is scientifically impossible to generate a 10-day forecast with any accuracy better than "pin the tail on the donkey". It is a guess, period. I call it weather entertainment. They publish it just to have something to talk about. I've tracked it for numerous events for several years, and they have never bared any resemblance to actual conditions.

NHRA's procedure historically is to make every possible effort to complete an event on the original scheduled weekend due to scheduling, staffing, logistics, advertising, commitments of the racers, fans, sponsors, etc. It's rare to lose 3-4 complete days straight, so they choose to utilize whatever windows that present themselves. It's a lose-lose situation for most involved, but it is not possible for them to operate as nimble as a local bracket track. While they are forced to plow ahead and make the best of situations, they're generally pretty consistent about it.

We postponed our March race by a week this year, not because we were able to tell what the following weekend was going to offer, but because the original date offered no chance whatsoever. When the postponed date rolls around, you have to once again simply deal with the hand you are dealt, and adjust accordingly (which we had to do).



Visual demonstration of chaos theory: https://youtu.be/zC3K5rnTwnE
My professor had a similar apparatus, with two sets of double bars. When dropped, they would start falling in the same direction at the same pace, but the error in the initial constraints multiply exponentially over time, quickly resulting in wildly different patterns. He explained things much better than this guy, but you get the idea.

Jack Matyas 10-01-2015 04:02 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
3 Attachment(s)
So at 3 o'clock they bagged it for the day and said we'll start again tomorrow morning at 8:30 sharp .

And now its back to soap operas and maybe some cards .Speaking of which I dug out my Winston 20th anniversary deck - but i'm not sure exactly what year it was when I got them .Anybody got a clue??? And you must have proper snacks while playing .....

Oh yeah , btw its still raining .............

Ron Ortiz 10-01-2015 05:00 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Percent of chance of rain is a misleading statement.

If it rains one drop, then no matter what the percent chance is or was, it has met the percent chance.

50% chance does not mean that it will rain 50% of the day. Only that there is a chance it will rain, so if it rains one drop, then the percent chance has been met.

You racers chose to chance it out by going. Hope all goes well.

Several years ago we got hit with a hurricane on FL. west coast. In my little town of Englewood the storm went right through us but there was a pocket of clear area that stayed over us as the storm went through, no rain, the storm just cycled around us.

After that experience, I look at weather predictions a lot different. And that is a 50 % guess, which is not bad odds.

Ron Ortiz
U/SA chances of winning in the rain with my car, 100%

Skydog 10-01-2015 05:30 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jack Matyas (Post 483914)
So at 3 o'clock they bagged it for the day and said we'll start again tomorrow morning at 8:30 sharp .

And now its back to soap operas and maybe some cards .Speaking of which I dug out my Winston 20th anniversary deck - but i'm not sure exactly what year it was when I got them .Anybody got a clue??? And you must have proper snacks while playing .....

Oh yeah , btw its still raining .............

Winston came on board, I believe in 1971. So they may be from '91.

MikeMoller 10-01-2015 05:31 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
1 Attachment(s)
Nothing like some twizzlers on a rainy day at the track-love'em! Hope you guys get the race in.
BTW - From 1975 to 2001, Winston was the sponsor of the NHRA drag racing series

david ring 10-01-2015 06:36 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
First of all, the reason for choosing 0 and 100 percent were to use the extremes. Second of all, the point of my example was to indicate that any decision today should use all information, including information about the future. Third, I know a little bit of math, maybe even more than a little bit and I understand about non-linearities and for example the stability of a system (for example a system could be locally stable and not globally stable-it is much easier to prove locally stability because you can use a linear approximation via the first few terms of a Taylor expansion). And while national events are rarely postponed in advance, points races have been due to forecasts.

Brett Rose 10-02-2015 07:06 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Anyone from the track or nearby awake yet? I'm about 2 hours and 45 minutes south, ready to make the trip up.


Watching the radar and looking bleak, especially with some strong wind blowing would make for a crappy drive. I'm keeping an eye on things here, and if it looks like a clear window for late morning, I'll make it up.


Thanks for the updates. Us fans and media folks appreciate it!

Jack Matyas 10-02-2015 07:11 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Good morning - Well this morning is a carbon copy of yesterday - chilly @ 54 degrees with a slight fog and some drizzle .Our 8:30 start is doubtful at best but you never know .
Everyone is chompin' at the bit to get on the track but 'ole Mother Nature just won't let it happen .Sooner or later it will but today might be another wash .

Last evening the winds came thru and for a time it was batten down the hatches and bring in the awnings .Weather forcasters are now saying the entire storm could miss us and run up the coast - not a bad thing if it comes true .

Anyway it would be nice to be writing about cars - the track and people instead of the weather stuff - stick with us as sooner or later it'll take place .We'll probably set some kind of record as this is post #89 with almost 40,000 hits and a car hasn't gone down the 1/4 mile yet ! ! !

Back as soon as I know more .........

Bob Bender 10-02-2015 07:31 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Jack, coffee is on !!!!

Floyd Staggs 10-02-2015 07:52 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Looks like it is headed our way. Your forecast for Sunday is good and ours is 100% rain here at the Div 7 ET Finals.

Angelo DiTocco 10-02-2015 07:56 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Hey Jack,
There was some positive news that the Hurricane is moving east as hoped. I feel for you all - been in that situation many times. Hopefully things will improve as the day goes on and the sportsman will get some runs in. Thanks to Jack & Ken for keeping the rest of us in the loop. Good luck today.

SS/1230 10-02-2015 08:27 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
I hear that Angelo..I think we've all been there. I can say though, as I sit at my desk at work, a rainy day at the race track sure beats any day in the office.

Although storm is pushing off to sea, still looks like the remnants of the storm will hit the coast... rain at 100% today and 80% tomorrow. The high winds is the dangerous part for the racers even if it doesn't rain.

http://www.weather.com/weather/radar...s=ussat&zoom=6

How do you think the track will fair with the constant rain and the cold temperatures? Could be difficult to create a good surface and decent track conditions.

- Fontana II

HR9121 10-02-2015 09:58 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Hope you guys get it in! Hopefully you won't get the rain we are getting down here, this morning all the frogs are congregating on the overpasses.

Mickey Whaley 10-02-2015 10:13 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by HR9121 (Post 483974)
Hope you guys get it in! Hopefully you won't get the rain we are getting down here, this morning all the frogs are congregating on the overpasses.

I saw 12 at mc donalds this morning eating an egg mcmuffin hope this stuff doesn't go the same way its going I have 3 inches since last night

Jeff Teuton 10-02-2015 10:17 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Jack, Google the National Weather Service (NWS) and look at the live radar and loops for the real time picture. I think they have about 10 different sections of the country. No BS there. Might help your planning. Hurricane is gone.

dartman 10-02-2015 10:32 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff Teuton (Post 483977)
Jack, Google the National Weather Service (NWS) and look at the live radar and loops for the real time picture. I think they have about 10 different sections of the country. No BS there. Might help your planning. Hurricane is gone.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/ind...ared_from.html

Mickey Whaley 10-02-2015 10:45 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
none of this rain is coming from the hurricane it is still down south but raining like a mofo and headed north

Ty Webb 10-02-2015 01:03 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
With the forcasted wind for Saturday, perhaps they should consider running 1/8th mile?

Mickey Whaley 10-02-2015 01:13 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ty Webb (Post 483994)
With the forcasted wind for Saturday, perhaps they should consider running 1/8th mile?

Fat chance

James Perrone 10-02-2015 01:29 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Where is grahm light our guiding light in our time of need #?

HR9121 10-02-2015 01:50 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mickey Whaley (Post 483976)
I saw 12 at mc donalds this morning eating an egg mcmuffin hope this stuff doesn't go the same way its going I have 3 inches since last night

Should've got the value meal! We're up to 5 inches now on top of the 7-11 inches we got last weekend depending on on which side of the road you were on.

Rich Biebel 10-02-2015 02:34 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
" I don't think the heavy stuff is coming down for a while yet, we got time for 9 more holes".....



Try to think funny....it helps....

Ven302 10-02-2015 02:35 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Fri, 02 Oct 2015, 14:32 PM

Friday Done for the Day
Courtesy of Rick Green


MOHNTON, Pa. -- It is still raining and has all day, so Race Control has called it for today. Stock will be first cars on the track starting at 8:30 am Saturday.

HR9121 10-02-2015 02:57 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Maybe it will turn out like the first Charlotte race, 1 time shot and go racing.

tim worner 10-02-2015 03:00 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Done for another day

blkjack 10-02-2015 03:13 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Should be operational by 4 tomorrow ;)

MR DERBY CITY 10-02-2015 03:38 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Damn, the part time racers/ weathermen on this site have been spot on.

Mike Pearson 10-02-2015 03:50 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
We had weather similar to what is being experienced at the Keystones one year at the gators. They skipped around the lower class sportsman categories until Sunday AM. Then gave us one qualify pass then held us until late in the day to run first round. finished the pros and ran the rest of the sportsman classes on Monday. I hope this does not happen to y'all. Best of luck to all.

Jack Matyas 10-02-2015 03:51 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
9 Attachment(s)
Yeah - yeah I know I ditched you guys today but I was getting cabin fever already .And getting on here reading and writing about all this gloom and doom weather just got to me .So I jumped in my car this morning and turned to what helps - work! ! A short 50 minute drive and I was at the car capital of the world - Manheim , Pennsylvania .Thousands and thousands of cars to look at and possibly purchase - all at one address .

I may not have been able to see many cars the last few days here at Maple Grove but they were out in full force at the auction today - I snapped a few pics just for practice .And if you're looking for pictures of sixties iron stop here - they weren't out ! ! !

Enjoy as its all you're getting from me today ......

Mickey Whaley 10-02-2015 03:52 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MR DERBY CITY (Post 484017)
Damn, the part time racers/ weathermen on this site have been spot on.

Ray Charles called me yesterday and said he could even see this coming

Ed Carpenter 10-02-2015 07:01 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Weather underground say 63/48 for Sunday. Wow if the track is dry and the humidity isn't to bad cars will be flying. There should be a new stock record and some permanent hits come Tuesday if racers aren't careful.

Ed Fernandez 10-02-2015 08:36 PM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mickey Whaley (Post 483976)
I saw 12 at mc donalds this morning eating an egg mcmuffin hope this stuff doesn't go the same way its going I have 3 inches since last night

Mickey, did you chase them away and steal it?

Jack Matyas 10-03-2015 06:49 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Good morning - Could today be the day we've all been waiting for ? Maybe finally get in some track action ? Right at this moment I'd say no cause its raining and pretty breezy out my window .But as you all know this is Maple Grove and it might change in a heartbeat .Only thing moving out there are the garbage trucks and believe it or not there are some fans walking around already .Why you ask? I haven't a clue but as you already know we take most of this race for granted and don't really pay attention to anything but the classes we race in.

After it gets light out (and I finish my Raisen Bran Crunch breakfast ) I'll get out and snap a few photos and maybe interview a few fans ........later ! !

John DiBartolomeo 10-03-2015 07:39 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
I think I'd have another bowl of cereal (name withheld - what are posing for a sponsor?) if I were you Jack. It's still pretty miserable out here.

Bob Lasko 10-03-2015 08:14 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
When and if they post a schedule, can someone please take a picture and post it.

Thanks,
Bob Lasko

James Perrone 10-03-2015 09:03 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Zero chance of racing. I'm in the fields. Wtf Rumor is we are staying till its done. How about sending us bottom feeders home till next week. We are not the pros. We are not gonna be in any schedule where the weather permits s. Someone throw life preserver. Ray Charles would have called it and how about all the fans getting hosed and held hostage

Mickey Whaley 10-03-2015 10:08 AM

Re: Live from Reading, Pennsylvania - NHRA Keystone National
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed Fernandez (Post 484053)
Mickey, did you chase them away and steal it?

Ed the bugs could not fly around here because of the rain so I let them eat and got a breakfast burrito


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