Quote:
Originally Posted by david ring
I understand that, but decision makers have to make decisions based upon the information they have now. Suppose you have this information.
1. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-0 percent chance of rain;
2. forecast for this weekend-50 percent chance of rain; forecast for next week-100 percent chance of rain;
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False premise. There is no such thing as a forecast for next week, particularly one that would ever say 0% or 100%. They have a hard time denoting a 0% or 100% chance within hours, let alone 10 days away. Again, it is scientifically impossible to generate a 10-day forecast with any accuracy better than "pin the tail on the donkey". It is a guess, period. I call it weather entertainment. They publish it just to have something to talk about. I've tracked it for numerous events for several years, and they have never bared any resemblance to actual conditions.
NHRA's procedure historically is to make every possible effort to complete an event on the original scheduled weekend due to scheduling, staffing, logistics, advertising, commitments of the racers, fans, sponsors, etc. It's rare to lose 3-4 complete days straight, so they choose to utilize whatever windows that present themselves. It's a lose-lose situation for most involved, but it is not possible for them to operate as nimble as a local bracket track. While they are forced to plow ahead and make the best of situations, they're generally pretty consistent about it.
We postponed our March race by a week this year, not because we were able to tell what the following weekend was going to offer, but because the original date offered no chance whatsoever. When the postponed date rolls around, you have to once again simply deal with the hand you are dealt, and adjust accordingly (which we had to do).
Visual demonstration of chaos theory:
My professor had a similar apparatus, with two sets of double bars. When dropped, they would start falling in the same direction at the same pace, but the error in the initial constraints multiply exponentially over time, quickly resulting in wildly different patterns. He explained things much better than this guy, but you get the idea.