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Old 11-28-2007, 10:07 AM   #47
Angelo DiTocco
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Join Date: Dec 2001
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Default Re: Word is 1.15 under for AHFS at Opens and Divisional races

All's this means is that if the 1.15 is applied to divisionals..... racers are going to do the same thing there that is done at Nationals.... which is slowing their stuff down.

Lynn McCarty's post several pages back............ ignored for the most part, really makes a valid point...... he suggests using "statistical analysis" to determine the combos that have a "statistically significant" advantage.

The only problem with doing this now is that the data from qualifying sheets (that exist since AHFS's inception) are completely skewed and inaacurate due to the sandbagging by us all to avoid triggering the AHFS itself.

Before AHFS was instituted..... I had posted on several forums and wrote to the nhra........ in favor of using a statistical analysis approach to looking at hp factors. At the time.... the qualifying data used for the numbers crunching would have been more reliable. It could have all been done experimentally and its validity checked and rechecked before implementing it.

But like Lynns post.... it was not seriously considered, even ignored by many. I believe at the time...the NHRA's attitude was leaning more towards a system where the individual racer could be held more accountable for what happened to him... rather than a system where they make the determinations.

What Lynn is referencing as a "bell curve" is known in Statistics as a "Standard Distribution". Basically it is measure that is used for a great deal of scientific research such as determinging the effectiveness of a medication.... and even in intelligence testing. In a nutshell..... once a standard distribution is established.... any item (being tested).... more than a "standard deviation" or two above the average... (such as a combo that can go 1.35 under in the summer when the next fastest car is .95 under) is not there by chance.. its not there because the driver stumbled on the perfect tune up... or got a better hold of the track that pass....... it is expected that there must be a logical explanation for it (such as it is under rated). Another example..... if a human scores a 160 on a real IQ examnation.... that person did not get there by guessing all the answers.... there is a reason..... he has exceptional intellectual potential. I really think such a system would have been able to even things out.... and allow racers to persue engine combinations that truely were intersting to them.

I will be holding a seminar on this topic the Wednesday before Gainseville in the purple and yellow hospitality tent under the zepole gazebo.

Either way.... its too bad that this situation still remains a sore point for many. As for myself I eventually gave up and..... I went the route of the soft combo which I highly recommend to others by the way.

Anyway.... I wish all a great holiday season ...... no matter what happens, we're all in it for fun (I hope).
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Angelo DiTocco
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Last edited by Angelo DiTocco; 11-28-2007 at 10:12 AM.
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