Originally Posted by Alan Roehrich
Raising the interest rate discourages nearly everyone from borrowing money. It has called a decline in the housing market, especially new home building, for seven straight months. Only place where the market is extremely hot, or where people already have the money borrowed, are still seeing home building.
It's not businesses borrowing money that causes inflation.
Inflation is a direct result of "free money" in various forms of government spending. Such as multiple "stimulus" checks, increased and extended unemployment benefits, etc.
Now, the attending labor shortages from the plandemic, in several areas of the market, add to it. When there are shortages, the market drives up the price, even if the shortage is temporary, or even caused by the inability to transport goods to end consumers.
Energy production is also a great influence. In the current case, slashing domestic energy production immediately cost more than 150,000 jobs directly. It added those people to the unemployment rolls. But it also drove the price up instantly. Driving up the cost of oil doesn't just hit you at the pump. Every product you buy is transported, entirely by some fossil fuel. And some 90% either contains plastic or is at least packaged in plastic. Further, businesses see immediate utility increases, especially if they use CNG or oil, but also any other form of energy.
So, actually, nothing about the interest rate has any direct effect on inflation. That's exactly why the ridiculous interest rate increases have not even slowed inflation. The ONLY reduction in inflation has come from the temporary reduction in fuel costs, which will be very temporary as the recent OPEC production cuts hit, and winter sets in and energy consumption rises.
Corporations are seeing the inflation effects, and they're tightening up. And that's killing the stock market. And your 401k.
The fed raising interest rates is only killing the economy, driving it from a somewhat mild reception toward a real depression.
The only solution available is to cut government spending. The market will contract, and times will get harder before they get better. Recover from the economy being drunk/high on government spending is no different from an alcoholic or drug addict recovering from the addiction and going through withdrawal first. But the longer the inflation continues, especially with wage stagnation, the deeper the recession or depression, and the worse the withdrawal before real recover begins. AND the further behind the middle and lower classes get.
The last real report on inflation now shows that the average two income family, even with the minuscule wage growth seen, is now $11,000 a year behind 2019, and falling further behind. We're in true runaway stagflation. And, despite bogus claims to the contrary, those people in the "hospitality" industry who are seeing substantial wage increases, are STILL falling behind, because their wages didn't come close to catching up. All that did was slash the number and frequency of people eating out, and staying in hotels.
Other than tightening our belts, there's little the middle class can do. However, the wealthy are raking it in. And the government itself, which they're taxing you to support, is growing by leaps and bounds. Of course, that one segment of the government, the military personnel who defend you, well, those people are being told to apply for food stamps.
Oh, cashing out of the market when prices fall is not necessarily smart. Right now, you've only lost money on paper. Only if there is NEVER a recovery do you actually lose money when you hold on. The truth is, as long as you have your income, financial instruments in the market are now ON SALE. Over any 10 year period in history, the market makes money. You'll make money, too, if you remain calm and don't sell at a loss. If it makes you feel better, move any new purchases to low risk slow growth instruments for now.
Consider those who panicked and sold in 2008. They turned paper losses into real losses. Compare them to those who held their investments, and bought while it was on sale, and what profits they realized in ten years when in 2018 the economy was killing it. What the ten year market will look like will of course depend upon the next three elections. If the mid terms turn out to be a true referendum on the economy, the bleeding may slow as early as late 2023.
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