Topeka 10 day weather??? - Page 2

Tom Moock · 05-19-2017, 10:11 AM

Racing in Topeka this morning per my son@ the track, challenger ran 1.24 under,weather man said 100% rain today.

Dyno · 05-19-2017, 05:17 PM

is that the 392 combination?

Michael Beard · 05-19-2017, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superfan1

Alan, as someone who studied meteorology in college, I respectfully disagree. At best, a 10 day forecast is an educated guess. The weather systems that will be in play 10 days from now, in most cases, haven't even formed yet. The computer models that meteorologists use for guidance will indicate the formation of said systems; but at a very low level of confidence.

THANK YOU! Dead-on. I've been preaching this for years, but it falls on deaf ears. People put more faith in the Weather Entertainment people.

-MB

Ed Wright · 05-19-2017, 08:51 PM

Doesn't appear they missed it too far. Glad I didn't go.

Michael Beard · 05-20-2017, 09:05 AM

The LIVE from Norwalk thread is a great example. Friday's forecast said clear all day. It rained. Saturday's forecast a couple of days ago said chance of rain all day, today it says clear all day. I think people just put stock in what they say because every once in awhile they accidentally guess right. I think they also forget how much the "long range forecast" often differs from the same weather service's short range forecast just days later.

Michael Beard · 05-20-2017, 06:40 PM

Hourly forecast for Norwalk today, as of this morning...

Guess they didn't look at the radar...

"15%" It rained. "So you're telling me there's a chance!"

05-19-2017, 10:11 AM	#11
Tom Moock Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 801 Likes: 1 Liked 10 Times in 6 Posts	Re: Topeka 10 day weather??? Racing in Topeka this morning per my son@ the track, challenger ran 1.24 under,weather man said 100% rain today. __________________ Tom Moock 5704 STK

05-19-2017, 05:17 PM	#12
Dyno Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 916 Likes: 1,139 Liked 685 Times in 204 Posts	Re: Topeka 10 day weather??? is that the 392 combination?

05-19-2017, 08:51 PM	#14
Ed Wright Veteran Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Sand Springs, OK Posts: 8,132 Likes: 896 Liked 390 Times in 170 Posts	Re: Topeka 10 day weather??? Doesn't appear they missed it too far. Glad I didn't go. __________________ Ed Wright 4156 SS/JA

05-20-2017, 09:05 AM	#15
Michael Beard VIP Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 4,060 Likes: 0 Liked 13 Times in 9 Posts	Re: Topeka 10 day weather??? The LIVE from Norwalk thread is a great example. Friday's forecast said clear all day. It rained. Saturday's forecast a couple of days ago said chance of rain all day, today it says clear all day. I think people just put stock in what they say because every once in awhile they accidentally guess right. I think they also forget how much the "long range forecast" often differs from the same weather service's short range forecast just days later. __________________ Michael Beard - NHRA/IHRA 3216 S/SS

05-20-2017, 06:40 PM	#16
Michael Beard VIP Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 4,060 Likes: 0 Liked 13 Times in 9 Posts	Re: Topeka 10 day weather??? Hourly forecast for Norwalk today, as of this morning... Guess they didn't look at the radar... "15%" It rained. "So you're telling me there's a chance!" __________________ Michael Beard - NHRA/IHRA 3216 S/SS