Topeka 10 day weather???

[Superfan1]

Originally Posted by Alan Nyhus

Weather Underground is pretty reliable for the 10 day forecast:

https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin...=topeka+kansas

NOAA is also pretty good:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...6#.WRYWFmcYGSo

Alan, as someone who studied meteorology in college, I respectfully disagree. At best, a 10 day forecast is an educated guess. The weather systems that will be in play 10 days from now, in most cases, haven't even formed yet. The computer models that meteorologists use for guidance will indicate the formation of said systems; but at a very low level of confidence.

[Michael Beard]

Originally Posted by Superfan1

Alan, as someone who studied meteorology in college, I respectfully disagree. At best, a 10 day forecast is an educated guess. The weather systems that will be in play 10 days from now, in most cases, haven't even formed yet. The computer models that meteorologists use for guidance will indicate the formation of said systems; but at a very low level of confidence.

THANK YOU! Dead-on. I've been preaching this for years, but it falls on deaf ears. People put more faith in the Weather Entertainment people.

-MB

[Ed Wright]

Doesn't appear they missed it too far. Glad I didn't go.

[Michael Beard]

The LIVE from Norwalk thread is a great example. Friday's forecast said clear all day. It rained. Saturday's forecast a couple of days ago said chance of rain all day, today it says clear all day. I think people just put stock in what they say because every once in awhile they accidentally guess right. I think they also forget how much the "long range forecast" often differs from the same weather service's short range forecast just days later.

[Michael Beard]

Hourly forecast for Norwalk today, as of this morning...




Guess they didn't look at the radar...



"15%" It rained. "So you're telling me there's a chance!"