Attn 396, 375hp iron head racers

[Alan Roehrich]

Originally Posted by Stewart Way

Alan
Don't run Stock but the AHFS is an interesting topic and I do try to make sense of it so I have been following this thread. Agree with most of what you stated above, especially the human factor. One point I question is your belief that the more cars in a combo, the more heads up runs. I don't think thats true. Its the total class population that dictates the number of heads up runs not a combo population. A B/SA Camaro has no more chance of a heads up run than a B/SA Cuda but there are a lot more Camaros than Cudas.

But since there are a lot more B/SA Camaros, there's a far greater chance a B/SA Camaro will be in a heads up than a B/SA 'Cuda. It's pretty simple really. It's hard to find a field WITHOUT a B/SA Camaro, or for that matter, two of them. If you have a field of say 80 cars or so, and there are 3 B/SA Camaros, and the normal 1 or less B/SA Cuda's, which is more likely to get a heads up, A Camaro or THE 'Cuda? Or maybe I've got that figured wrong.

[Stewart Way]

Alan
Your right. Odds are the same for the Cuda and any one of the Camaros, but since there are more Camaros odds of a heads up run for a Camaro are greater.

[Terry Cain]

Originally Posted by Stewart Way

Alan
Your right. Odds are the same for the Cuda and any one of the Camaros, but since there are more Camaros odds of a heads up run for a Camaro are greater.

The odds would be the same. If you have four cars in a class all cars have the same odds of drawing a heads-up run.

[Alan Roehrich]

Originally Posted by TCain

The odds would be the same. If you have four cars in a class all cars have the same odds of drawing a heads-up run.

Yes, but if there are three Camaros and one 'Cuda, as in this example, it is three times more likely that ONE of the THREE Camaros will get a heads up than the ONE 'Cuda. Simply because there are three times as many Camaros in the field. Any ONE car has the same odds as the rest. But the GROUP of THREE has higher odds AS A GROUP than the single car.