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Old 11-11-2024, 04:50 PM   #61
Doug Hoven
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Default Re: index lowering

I think there are two ways of looking at this issue. On one hand, yes there are combos that have picked up quite a bit since the last time the rules were changed, whether this be due to aftermarket parts, relaxed tech, etc. However, not all combos really "recovered" in a way since the last index change because they either don't get any aftermarket parts, or they don't benefit from what is the "norm" as far as tech goes nowadays. I personally am not a "player" indexically by any means, mainly limited by funding, but if the indexes were to change, I'm going to keep racing, but I can't say the same for others in a similar situation. To comment on the lack of young stock/ super stock racers, if I'm being honest, if I hadn't been loaned a car for me to put my own drivetrain in, I probably would have just put a C4 in my mustang, and gone bracket racing instead.(Which I've considered doing just for more seat time). I've had conversations with quite a few racers my age, and the consensus is always the same. They can't find the incentive to run stock when the entry fee is more than the typical entry for a 10k bracket race. Unless you're born into a wealthy racing family, or are given the opportunity to drive someone else's "fast" stock/super stock car, lowering the indexes is just going to push what little "new blood" considering building a car away. IMHO, if the indexes were to be lowered, I think NHRA should consider leaving the FWD indexes alone. I find it funny how back in "the day", you were given horsepower arbitrarily if you went fast, but racers just shrugged their shoulders and kept on racing when it happened. Now, everyone complains how much money they have in their engines, and its offensive to think the really fast combos deserve HP. "I've spent tens of thousands on my engine, and have to slow it down so I don't get horsepower, and it's NHRA's fault for not catering to guys like me" Sounds like a story CNN would report.
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Old 11-11-2024, 05:25 PM   #62
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Default Re: index lowering

I debated very long about if I was going to respond to this thread or others. I will state as a "young blood" in the sport, I have been racing for 3-4 years and 30 years old. I have my own opinions about this situation and as such decided to share with the group my email response to our Div rep I sent.

As a Super Stock racer, I feel my opinion and analysis are most relevant to that category. Therefore, I will leave the discussion of Stock to my fellow racers.

Regarding Super Stock, this is a very tough question and decision for the NHRA officials to determine. I must personally say I see both sides of the coin regarding the rationale to lower the indexes to serve the few who have spent countless dollars and hours working on their combination and would enjoy being able to run flat out. However, I also appreciate the other side of the coin where certain combinations or people are not far enough under the index to warrant any form of restrictions on their passes. I also respect and appreciate that this is a performance-based class, which should carry a large discussion in terms of input. With all that said, I am not in favor of lowering the indexes at this time based on the following points:


Lack of Tech by NHRA: This lack of tech has allowed some, but not all, the ability to change their performance in an unfavorable way compared to others. As such, lowering the indexes will likely only further encourage the lack of honesty and integrity within our sport among racers who do not desire to be the #1 qualifier at Indy, where the only real teardowns occur. As such, people will be more tempted to gain additional performance enhancements to meet the new lower index requirements.

Flaws in the AFHS System: The system only evaluates runs between a certain range and does not fully account for outliers (weather conditions, individuals that are higher than 10% variability of the same combinations, or the lower qualifying personnel that are running said engines outright). In today?s data analytics world and with the conjunction of AI, simpler regression models could be easily established to account for said variables to build a more robust system.

Performance Data Analysis: Looking at the average under-index runs for 2024 in Super Stock, granted I am missing a few events and run logs, but out of my 8,224 runs established in 2024 for NHRA Super Stock, I have removed outliers of cars outside of 2 seconds under the index for reporting issues and any run that is over the index for a total count of 7,120 runs counting towards the data analytics. The average for all the runs was -0.635, which is well below the NHRA golden standard of -0.85. Therefore, a vast majority of the runs are below the established threshold for the AFHS system and NHRA?s long-standing standard. In fact, there were 1,284 total runs that were -0.850 or more under the index, or 18% of all the runs completed in NHRA Super Stock logged. Of these 7,120 runs logged, there were 592 unique individual NHRA racers that competed to complete this list. 212 racers completed at least a single pass that was -0.850 or further under the index, and only 81 racers completed at least a single pass that was -1.00 or more under the index. This correlates to 15% of the racing community having completed at least a -1.00 second or under pass. Based on this data, I would say the bell curve is appropriate for a performance chart in terms of a smaller percentage of personnel being in the ?elite? under the index performance. The challenge I would have for NHRA is to evaluate the AFHS system in terms of revamping to properly address certain engine combinations and the evaluation of individual personnel against the standard margins for said engine combinations. Simple outlier tests and statistical analysis of 3 standard deviations or nelson rules could be utilized to determine if an individual is well outperforming the average for said combination. This would be a great starting point in reimplementing the teardown and tech of NHRA as opposed to who is the #1 qualifier at Indy. Reference the histogram chart attached for the detailed breakdown of runs within x range of under the index.

Impact on Sport and Revenue: The final point is related to the status of our sport and competition. It should never be confused or twisted that NHRA is a business first, and therefore one of the most important points is related to revenue. In this specific case, NHRA would be eliminating some of the racers that are not able to qualify with the adjustment of indexes. Out of the 7,120 runs, there were 167 unique racers that qualified at -0.200 to 0.000 under the index during some form of qualifying and eliminations. I do note that some of these runs could easily be outliers for people?s individual averages but do show a higher number of unique racers have passes below the threshold than that of the 1-second club, which this rule change is really tailored towards. Eliminating racers from a class hurts revenue that is already established with the divisional and national events that are already scheduled. The economy has been tough on a lot of individuals, and with the lower lack of additional fun money funds for the average NHRA sportsman racer, I believe it is important for the survival of our sport to continue to encourage and find alternative ways to grow with the difficulties of today. One area of growth within the sportsman ranks is to continue to allow budget building of racer cars that are obtainable for all individuals. COPO, Drag Paks, and Cobra Jets are not obtainable for the average weekend warrior NHRA sportsman racer, but I do understand the corporate engagement they drive. This continued engagement will help grow or at least maintain the numbers of current events, which have seen a decline over the last few years, as opposed to booting people out the door. Every dollar counts from all racers, regardless of the class or way they got to the event.
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Old 11-11-2024, 06:06 PM   #63
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Default Re: index lowering

Great stuff Avery!
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Old 11-11-2024, 06:46 PM   #64
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Default Re: index lowering

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Originally Posted by HR9121 View Post
Great stuff Avery!

.I second that.

I have thought that there should be a two tier system.
Divisonals stay as the are today
National Events are ALL run as Indy currently is. No HP . Open entry, only the top Qualifers make it. Must enter National race two weeks before. If you can not make a race for any reason, no refunds.
National Events entrys would be self policing , if your fast you may get in, if your not why would you go? You have Divisonals to to race at until you are..

Just my 2 cents

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Old 11-11-2024, 08:42 PM   #65
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Default Re: index lowering

If we really want to see how fast a combination will go, reinstate Class Winners as automatically included in the field of 128 at Indy. No combo class but if your the only one in your class you have to run the National Index or quicker to be in the eliminations. The great part of this if you can outdrive the fast car and be the class winner your in. If there are 64 class winners the fastest non class winner qualifier would be placed on the sheet as number 65 and so on until #128. I believe it will bring back the building of odd rods to win Class and to make the show.
I know it?s old school but so is the Constitution and it still works.
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Old 11-11-2024, 08:44 PM   #66
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Default Re: index lowering

I havent heard anyone mention personal indexes
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Old 11-11-2024, 11:28 PM   #67
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Default Re: index lowering

Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug Hoven View Post
I think there are two ways of looking at this issue. On one hand, yes there are combos that have picked up quite a bit since the last time the rules were changed, whether this be due to aftermarket parts, relaxed tech, etc. However, not all combos really "recovered" in a way since the last index change because they either don't get any aftermarket parts, or they don't benefit from what is the "norm" as far as tech goes nowadays. I personally am not a "player" indexically by any means, mainly limited by funding, but if the indexes were to change, I'm going to keep racing, but I can't say the same for others in a similar situation. To comment on the lack of young stock/ super stock racers, if I'm being honest, if I hadn't been loaned a car for me to put my own drivetrain in, I probably would have just put a C4 in my mustang, and gone bracket racing instead.(Which I've considered doing just for more seat time). I've had conversations with quite a few racers my age, and the consensus is always the same. They can't find the incentive to run stock when the entry fee is more than the typical entry for a 10k bracket race. Unless you're born into a wealthy racing family, or are given the opportunity to drive someone else's "fast" stock/super stock car, lowering the indexes is just going to push what little "new blood" considering building a car away. IMHO, if the indexes were to be lowered, I think NHRA should consider leaving the FWD indexes alone. I find it funny how back in "the day", you were given horsepower arbitrarily if you went fast, but racers just shrugged their shoulders and kept on racing when it happened. Now, everyone complains how much money they have in their engines, and its offensive to think the really fast combos deserve HP. "I've spent tens of thousands on my engine, and have to slow it down so I don't get horsepower, and it's NHRA's fault for not catering to guys like me" Sounds like a story CNN would report.
Doug,

Was the last "Index Change" that you are referring to perchance performed in June 2003 by any chance? (As my particular combo was hit w/ 6 HP on that date and no one will take the time or point out why, or who caused it and only answer with " It is a moot subject." And I knowfor a fact that I am the only idiot in history to ever compete with this particular exact slowest combo and while close twice (Winternats 1995 and World Finals 2023), and both at Pomona, CA ran close but never exceeded-.800 under index), all other passes were well below that, some a lot slower at elevation and in bad corrected (D.A.) at altitude tracks. Historically only 6 passes ever anywhere up in the mid range between -.500/-.799 and all at that single track (and always on a crisp cold morning in November or February) Also was a Calif. Smog Car and just flat knows when it goes home (MAP Sensor whisperer?)...and it has historically raced at 32 tracks across the country N.W to N.E., S.W. to S.E. from 1993 to 97 & just 3 this time around so far 2023-24... nowhere near those numbers anywhere else. An issue that soon, I hope to be rectified.

If it was done then willy nilly like this proposal on a whim, suggestion and lobbying effort of some category participants and a simple poll/ committee vote (as is being suggested it appear currently), and not on "actual historical performance-based data of each individual Car/Engine Combo", it explains a whole freaking lot to me.

And it would be no wonder to me why nobody officially wants to answer my repeated questions because they also know I have an HP Reduction letter granted back to 99HP from 110 Feb 1996. I am currently 99 Factory/105 NHRA Factored. (Others in the same class are 100-500 lbs and more less in minimum wt., and they fly too at Indy and elsewhere). We are not talking minute differences here...the struggle is very real and getting quite a bit more expensive.
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Old 11-12-2024, 06:58 AM   #68
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Default Re: index lowering

Great job on the data Avery, it really shows how we as a collective group can askew the data in performance when a certain percentage try to get their average below .850 so a HP hit does not come our way. When you take a look at INDY qualifying the last 2 years it would be cool to see how that data aligns with yearly AHFS data. Indy data to me would be the real performance data since the AHFS is turned off. I really believe nothing is coming from all of this, just continue to slow those cars down for the averages is the new game.
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Old 11-12-2024, 08:34 AM   #69
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Default Re: index lowering

Quote:
Originally Posted by Herbie Null View Post
Great job on the data Avery, it really shows how we as a collective group can askew the data in performance when a certain percentage try to get their average below .850 so a HP hit does not come our way. When you take a look at INDY qualifying the last 2 years it would be cool to see how that data aligns with yearly AHFS data. Indy data to me would be the real performance data since the AHFS is turned off. I really believe nothing is coming from all of this, just continue to slow those cars down for the averages is the new game.
Hey Herbie shoot me a message on what exactly you want to see and I will be happy to show for the group. My biggest point ever is we live in a data world and should make data driven decisions.
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Old 11-12-2024, 08:40 AM   #70
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Default Re: index lowering

If they do decide to lower the indexes, I feel that they should consider not making any upward HP adjustments at the end of the year.
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