Stock and Super Stock Qualifying Predictions

George Wright · 08-25-2021, 03:28 PM

I put together several predicted qualifying sheets for Stock and Super Stock for the US Nationals. The qualifying sheets were built by using historical run data from February 2019 until August 2021. The Stock database has 40991 runs for this period. The Super Stock database has 31058 runs for this period. This is not all runs for Stock and Super Stock during this period, but is a fairly significant sample size. I scrapped together what all I could find. Of course, some of this data here may not be perfect. I attempted to clean up the data as best as possible. This process simply takes the best run found for a driver number and uses that to build a predicted qualifying sheet. It does not account for density altitude.

Nick Heath · 08-25-2021, 04:28 PM

George - This is really cool! I love data science projects like this. Not perfect, as you said - and the AFHS will play a factor - but it will be fun to see how close you get.

Dragrac419 · 08-25-2021, 04:41 PM

Can help with some of the missing runs. I love numbers and thanks for putting this together.

K103 D/S Kyle Kohr '68 Camaro 10.624 11.5 -0.876
3744 F/S Bob Gipson '65 Corvette 11.171 12.1 -0.929
1788 A/SA Bruce Noland '71 Corvette 9.943 11 -1.057

MR DERBY CITY · 08-25-2021, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dragrac419

Can help with some of the missing runs. I love numbers and thanks for putting this together.

K103 D/S Kyle Kohr '68 Camaro 10.624 11.5 -0.876
3744 F/S Bob Gipson '65 Corvette 11.171 12.1 -0.929
1788 A/SA Bruce Noland '71 Corvette 9.943 11 -1.057

This data is OLD NEWS ….Bob hasn’t had the Corvette in years AND Bruce is building a very rare Pontiac stocker. I can’t wait for Bruce to hit the track …

Larry Hill · 08-25-2021, 07:02 PM

Sure was fun to look at, thanks George.

james schaechter · 08-25-2021, 10:00 PM

[QUOTE=Dragrac419;646309]Can help with some of the missing runs. I love numbers and thanks for putting this together.

K103 D/S Kyle Kohr '68 Camaro 10.624 11.5 -0.876
3744 F/S Bob Gipson '65 Corvette 11.171 12.1 -0.929
1788 A/SA Bruce Noland '71 Corvette 9.943 11 -1.057[

Bob Gipson is bringing a brand new 65 Nova 327 250 hp stick car.

rboyle · 08-25-2021, 10:44 PM

I think the data is off a tick or two. There are 20 cars going faster than -1.20 which is highly unlikely. Some of them you have going faster than ghey ever have some slower than usual. I give you credit though. It is impressive and I'm sure there was a ton of work put into it. The bump is probably close to right though. We'll see in less than a week. Good luck all!

George Wright · 08-26-2021, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rboyle

I think the data is off a tick or two. There are 20 cars going faster than -1.20 which is highly unlikely. Some of them you have going faster than ghey ever have some slower than usual. I give you credit though. It is impressive and I'm sure there was a ton of work put into it. The bump is probably close to right though. We'll see in less than a week. Good luck all!

20 cars going faster than -1.20 is not "unlikely". I am attaching an updated list of where the best runs were recorded. Most were from previous US Nationals and National Opens (no AHFS).

So give me some actual examples from the last 3 years to show me who is being reported as "slower than usual".

Mark Yacavone · 08-26-2021, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by George Wright

20 cars going faster than -1.20 is not "unlikely". I am attaching an updated list of where the best runs were recorded. Most were from previous US Nationals and National Opens (no AHFS).

So give me some actual examples from the last 3 years to show me who is being reported as "slower than usual".

I only see 1 or 2 that would take the hit to be number 1. ...The rest know better, and their cars will mysteriously swallow some lead.
I'm not counting the F/X cars. First off I don't know most of them, and assume they will open the throttle body a little farther if they get a hit.

MR DERBY CITY · 08-26-2021, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by George Wright

20 cars going faster than -1.20 is not "unlikely". I am attaching an updated list of where the best runs were recorded. Most were from previous US Nationals and National Opens (no AHFS).

So give me some actual examples from the last 3 years to show me who is being reported as "slower than usual".

George if you believe more than 2 - 3 stockers will go faster than 1.20 under with the AHFS in affect, …well I have some PRIME ocean front property in KENTUCKY that I will GLADLY sell you ….

08-25-2021, 03:28 PM	#1
George Wright Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Michigan Posts: 185 Likes: 10 Liked 408 Times in 35 Posts	Stock and Super Stock Qualifying Predictions I put together several predicted qualifying sheets for Stock and Super Stock for the US Nationals. The qualifying sheets were built by using historical run data from February 2019 until August 2021. The Stock database has 40991 runs for this period. The Super Stock database has 31058 runs for this period. This is not all runs for Stock and Super Stock during this period, but is a fairly significant sample size. I scrapped together what all I could find. Of course, some of this data here may not be perfect. I attempted to clean up the data as best as possible. This process simply takes the best run found for a driver number and uses that to build a predicted qualifying sheet. It does not account for density altitude. Attached Thumbnails __________________ George Wright https://9500rpm.com

08-25-2021, 04:28 PM	#2
Nick Heath Member Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Jersey Shore Posts: 359 Likes: 1,444 Liked 566 Times in 135 Posts	Re: Stock and Super Stock Qualifying Predictions George - This is really cool! I love data science projects like this. Not perfect, as you said - and the AFHS will play a factor - but it will be fun to see how close you get.

08-25-2021, 04:41 PM	#3
Dragrac419 Member Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Bradenton FL Posts: 203 Likes: 2,219 Liked 183 Times in 82 Posts	Re: Stock and Super Stock Qualifying Predictions Can help with some of the missing runs. I love numbers and thanks for putting this together. K103 D/S Kyle Kohr '68 Camaro 10.624 11.5 -0.876 3744 F/S Bob Gipson '65 Corvette 11.171 12.1 -0.929 1788 A/SA Bruce Noland '71 Corvette 9.943 11 -1.057 __________________ Brian Stk B200

08-25-2021, 07:02 PM	#5
Larry Hill Live Reporter Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Hickory, Ky Posts: 10,640 Likes: 1,940 Liked 10,714 Times in 2,230 Posts	Re: Stock and Super Stock Qualifying Predictions Sure was fun to look at, thanks George. __________________ IHM Used Parts https://ihmusedparts.com 888-821-1817

08-25-2021, 10:00 PM	#6
james schaechter VIP Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Cumming GA Posts: 1,991 Likes: 1,289 Liked 1,430 Times in 298 Posts	Re: Stock and Super Stock Qualifying Predictions [QUOTE=Dragrac419;646309]Can help with some of the missing runs. I love numbers and thanks for putting this together. K103 D/S Kyle Kohr '68 Camaro 10.624 11.5 -0.876 3744 F/S Bob Gipson '65 Corvette 11.171 12.1 -0.929 1788 A/SA Bruce Noland '71 Corvette 9.943 11 -1.057[ Bob Gipson is bringing a brand new 65 Nova 327 250 hp stick car. Attached Thumbnails __________________ James Schaechter 3163 STK Last edited by james schaechter; 08-25-2021 at 10:07 PM.

08-25-2021, 10:44 PM	#7
rboyle Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 604 Likes: 1,454 Liked 586 Times in 162 Posts	Re: Stock and Super Stock Qualifying Predictions I think the data is off a tick or two. There are 20 cars going faster than -1.20 which is highly unlikely. Some of them you have going faster than ghey ever have some slower than usual. I give you credit though. It is impressive and I'm sure there was a ton of work put into it. The bump is probably close to right though. We'll see in less than a week. Good luck all!